Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 19.108787 22.185670 25.881330 30.735119 37.081423 45.310560 5.717571e+01
2025-01-12 14.601029 17.908892 22.246787 28.579159 38.026185 52.456848 7.830408e+01
2025-01-19 12.177087 15.422973 19.909927 26.913126 38.335992 58.022650 1.002484e+02
2025-01-26 12.017235 15.852941 21.530567 31.237827 49.262973 86.909872 1.997053e+02
2025-02-02 11.344021 15.391069 21.677707 33.176790 56.840461 115.380497 3.672035e+02
2025-02-09 10.161255 13.980576 20.059941 31.578179 56.649752 125.195121 5.063272e+02
2025-02-16 9.678935 13.587335 20.033049 32.904083 63.477672 162.371704 1.110199e+03
2025-02-23 9.093470 12.952159 19.483099 33.049756 67.568535 196.631633 2.605851e+03
2025-03-02 8.558948 12.340226 18.882324 32.945120 71.008268 234.976246 9.030318e+03
2025-03-09 8.164551 11.921343 18.572403 33.402385 76.396274 296.443587 1.593719e+06
2025-03-16 7.593985 11.150204 17.510816 31.929209 75.084659 315.869110 NaN
2025-03-23 7.224105 10.698181 17.010552 31.693276 77.940769 377.071209 NaN
2025-03-30 6.722798 10.005555 16.025659 30.244449 76.441519 405.498587 NaN
2025-04-06 6.199321 9.242373 14.840779 28.134276 71.800333 394.024692 NaN
2025-04-13 5.772747 8.626171 13.898163 26.506267 68.536704 394.223804 NaN
2025-04-20 5.931666 9.070656 15.127421 30.730237 91.873799 1001.328411 NaN
2025-04-27 5.855112 9.074217 15.446132 32.621743 107.498674 2175.875279 NaN
2025-05-04 5.523459 8.574691 14.633918 31.062358 103.708595 2325.615561 NaN
2025-05-11 5.423841 8.509208 14.761971 32.355793 117.757625 6314.102661 NaN
2025-05-18 5.252012 8.292583 14.531710 32.497860 125.173071 16836.974373 NaN
2025-05-25 5.077347 8.059402 14.242092 32.395816 131.127079 76130.111820 NaN
2025-06-01 4.948095 7.907200 14.123743 32.841728 142.114877 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 4.718032 7.543212 13.484073 31.404855 136.578749 NaN NaN